Victory for USC
Bulldogs barkin’ at them Wolverines
Hook ‘em ‘Horns and gimmie that
Rockie Top Tennesseeeeeeeeeeee

There sure are a lot of apostrophes in college f’ball.

It’s time for my annual college football preseason predictions.  Yes, it’s a few days late, but I am massively behind on all things in life right now.  By my curent standards “a few days behind” is considered well ahead of schedule.

Let’s start with agriculture and mechanics:

Don’t buy the hype.  A&M will not be that good.  The hypesters think they will be legitimate team. No no.  If the o/u is at 8, take the under.

#1  A&M win win less than 8 games

But understand me.  Their defense is crap.  Crappier than crap.  But I respect their offense. And that is why I say…

#2  A&M offense is a top-ten offense

Seriously.

OU-TX?  I give it to the Gooners.  UT good.  Not great.  Their quarterback has experience.  Not ours, not really.

#3 OU beats Texas

Boise plays Va Tech.  It’s a big game.  One team’s hopes are shattered. Who is it?  The Broncos…

#4 Boise wins against Va Tech

#5 And they keep winning

#6 And they play for the BCS Championship

#7 And the motherfuckers win it all

Seriously.

What about Alabama?

Most overrated team ever.  Not only were they not as good last year as their record might imply, they lost a lot of players.  Alabama is terribly overrated.  And every talking suit with a microphone thinks Bama is God’s gift to football.  Nigga, please.  Bama loses 3.

#8  Bold pick…Bama loses 3.

Speaking of overrated teams, there’s Nebraksa.  Why is everybody so fucking stupid?  The Bugeaters played 2 good games, and we overlook how fucking terrible they were in all the games that preceded those two games. And of course they lost THE BEST PLAYER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL. So why are they going to be great? Because it sells copy to say that they will.  It sells copy to say that UT is great EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A FRESHMAN QB.  Fuck that.  Don’t buy the hype.   When NU played UT in last year’s Big XII Championship game, that was UT’s third best team over the past 5 years (worse than 05, worse than 08).  Wow, they almost beat us. Neat…you almost beat an OK team.  That wasn’t the best us. The 09 Horns weren’t exactly ‘95 Nebraska.  And the ‘09 and ‘10 ‘Huskers aren’t the ‘05 ‘Huskers ‘neither.  Fuck it… Nobody in the Big XII is all that great.

#9 Nebraska loses at least 3

This isn’t 2008.  College football does not revolve around the Big XII.

But there’s some good football out west..

#10  The J-Quizzz wins the Heisman….Even though he splits votes with Luck and Locker

What’s my #10?   Not that Junell is still gay.  That’s too easy.  Here’s a stretch..

#11  UH either goes 11-1 or 12-0 and is shut out of the BCS.  They become the Utah/Hawaii/Utah/Boise/TCU poster child for breaking the BCS.  Either they have 1 loss and are shut out of the BCS altogether or they go undefeated and get left out of the championship game.

Btw, I’ll bet anybody on any of these, just email me.

…there remains a name far above all the rest in its gloried fame.  Who could fail to be bold and free when your school has been blessed by the NAME OF LEE.

Interesting stuff.  I think that was a bit of a stretch saying the “Generals were regulars in the playoffs in from the 1960s through the late ’80s.”  Well, I enrolled in 1987, and we never made it, and nobody could recall the last time we had.

I am a little surprised he left my name out of the article.  Print media sucks these days.

An interesting little write-up on UT in the Mack Brown era.  I find it interesting that 24 times we have come from behind to win while 7 times we have blown a lead.  I find that pretty impressive.  Of those 7 losses, I think the 02 loss to Tech was the most painful – for me, even more painful than the 08 loss to Sand Aggy.

—————————————————————

Mack Brown coaching record at Texas: 128-27 (.823)

2 Big XII Titles, 1 BCS Title

24 of the 128 wins Texas trailed in the 4^th quarter

7 of the 27 losses Texas had a lead in the 4^th quarter

1998

Texas 30, Baylor 20 (Austin) – Texas trailed 20-16 with 4:54 left.  Ricky Williams scored TDs on runs of 14 and 7 (last 3 plays, 19 yards).

Texas 20, #7 Nebraska  16 (Lincoln) – Texas trailed 16-13 with 8:33 left.  Wane McGarity 2 yard TD pass from Applewhite with 2:47 left (14 plays, 85 yards).

#20 Texas 37, Okla St 34 (Austin) – OSU tied the game at 34 with 10:25 left.  Kris Stockton kicked a 29 yard FG with :03 on the clock (9 plays, 71 yard drive). 

Texas 26, #6 Texas A&M 24 (Austin) – Texas trailed by 1 with 2:20; Kris Stockton kicked a 24 yard FG with :05 on the clock (11 plays, 70 yards).

Losses – #18 Texas 35, Texas Tech (Lubbock) – Texas led by 1 entering the 4^th quarter and went up by 8 early in the 4^th on a Ricky Williams run.  Tech scored 3 times in the 4^th quarter, the last coming with :25 left.

1999

#18 Texas 24, #3 Nebraska 20 (Austin) – Nebraska went ahead 20-17 with 7:52 left.  Mike Jones caught a 17 yard TD from Major Applewhite with 5:51 left (4 plays, 60 yards).

#12 Texas 44, ISU 41 (Ames) – ISU tied the score at 41 with 3:20 to play.  Texas drove 71 yards on 9 plays and Kris Stockton kicked an 18 yard FG as time expired.

Losses - #17 Texas 20, NC State 23 (Austin) – Texas led by 8 entering the final quarter.  2 blocked punts returned for TDs in the 4^th quarter overcame a Kris Stockton FG with 7:28 to go.

#7 Texas 16, #24 Texas A&M 20 (College Station) – Texas entered the 4^th quarter up by 3.  But Texas was scoreless in the 2^nd half and A&M went ahead on a TD pass from Randy McCown with 5 minutes to play.

2001

#9 Texas 47, #21 Washington 43 (San Diego, Holiday Bowl) – Washington scored a 34 yard TD with 1:49 to play.  Texas went 80 yards in 7 plays and scored with :38 left on a 3 yard Ivan Williams TD run.

2002

#8 Texas 17, #17 Kansas State 14 (Manhattan, KS) – KSU tied the score at 14 early in the 4^th.  Texas went ahead with 1:32 left on a 27-yard FG (8 plays, 54 yards).

Losses - #3 Texas 24, #2 Oklahoma 35 (Dallas) – Texas lead by 3 entering the 4^th quarter, but OU ripped off 3 TD runs to win their 3^rd in a row in the series.

#4 Texas 38, Texas Tech 42 (Lubbock) – the teams entered the 4^th tied, and Texas had a 3 point lead with 9:26 left on an 84 yard pass play from Chris Simms to BJ Johnson.  But Tech scored on a Kliff Kingsbury pass with 5:41 to play to cap the upset, knocking Texas out of the Big XII and BCS title hunt.

2003

#13 Texas 24, #16 Kansas State 20 (Austin) – Vince Young scored a 1 yard TD with 5:19 to play (10 plays, 88 yards).

#6 Texas 43, Texas Tech 40 (Austin) – Tech scored a TD with 2:03 to play.  Chance Mock threw a 9-yard TD pass to BJ Johnson with :46 left (7 plays, 86 yards).

2004

#6 Texas 27, Kansas 23 (Lawrence, KS) – Texas trailed by 10 with 7:41 to go.  Vince Young scored on a 18 yard TD run with 4:12 left, then hit Tony Jeffery with a 21 yard TD pass with :11 left (8 plays, 47 yards).

 #6 Texas 38, #12 Michigan 37 (Pasadena, Rose Bowl) – Trailing by 10 at the start of the 4^th quarter, and the two teams traded scores in the 4^th.  Vince Young scored on runs 10 and 23 yards, Michigan added FGs of 32 yards and 42 yards, and Dusty Mangum hit a 37 yard FG as time expired.

2005

#2 Texas 25, #4 Ohio State 22 (Columbus) – Texas 22-16 with 5:12 left.  Vince Young hit Limas Sweed for a 24 yard TD with 2:37 remaining.

#2 Texas 41, #1 USC 38 (Pasadena, Rose Bowl)  – Texas trailed by 12 with 6:00 minutes left.  Vince Young added 2 running TDs of 17 and 8 yards, the last with :19 to go.

2006

#5 Texas 22, #17 Nebraska 20 (Lincoln) - Ryan Bailey kicked a 22 yard FG with :23 left (8 plays, 39 yards). 

#5 Texas 35, Texas Tech 31 (Lubbock) - Texas trailed 21-0 at the end of the 1^st quarter, and held Tech scoreless in the 2^nd half.  Quan Cosby caught a 28 yard TD to begin the 4^th quarter. 

#18 Texas 26, Iowa 24 (San Antonio, Alamo Bowl) - Texas trailed by 1 to begin the 4^th quarter.   Selvin Young scored a 2 yard TD run with just under 11:00 to go (11 play, 72 yards).   Iowa tacked on a field goal but could get no closer.

Losses – #10 Texas 7, Texas A&M 12 – Texas lead by 1 after 3 quarters but Stephen McGee’s 8 yard run with 2:32 left sealed the upset.

2007

#6 Texas 35, UCF 32 (Orlando) - Texas briefly trailed by 1 at the start of the 4^th quarter, but a couple Ryan Bailey FGs and a Jamaal Charles TD run capped the victory. 

#19 Texas 28, Nebraska 25 (Austin) - Texas trailed 17-9 to start the 4^th quarter, before Jamaal Charles ripped off 3 TD runs of 25, 86 and 40 yards.

 #14 Texas 38, Okla St 35 (Stillwater) – Texas trailed by 21 at the start of the 4^th quarter – 2 Jamaal Charles TD runs (18 and 75) and a Vondrell McGee TD run of 1 yard, set up the winning 40 yard FG by Ryan Bailey as time expired. 

2008

#5 Texas 45, #1 OU 35 (Dallas) – Texas trailed by 5 with 11:42 left in the 4^th quarter.  Two short Cody Johnson TD runs, the last coming with 4:02 left capped the win.

#3 Texas 24, #10 Ohio State 21 (Glendale, Fiesta Bowl) - OSU pulled ahead by 4 with 2 minutes to go – Colt McCoy lead an 11 play, 78 yard drive capped by a 26 yard TD pass to Quan Cosby with :16 left. 

Losses  - #1 Texas 33, #6 Texas Tech 39 (Lubbock) – Texas trailed the entire game until with 1:39 Vondrell McGee scored a TD to take a 1 point lead.  Graham Harrell drove Tech to the winning TD and a 28 yard pass to Michael Crabtree with 1 second on the clock.  Tech again knocked Texas out of a Big XII and BCS title shot.

2009

#3 Texas 16, #20 Oklahoma 13 (Dallas) – The teams entered the 4^th quarter tied at 13, but a 32 yard Hunter Lawrence FG early in the 4^th proved to be the game winner.

#3 Texas 13, #21 Nebraska 12 (Arlington, Big XII Championship) – Nebraska kicked a go-ahead FG with 1:44 left.  Hunter Lawrence hit a 46 yard FG as time expired (5 plays, 31 yards).

This is a great site, and it makes me realize how much cooler it would be to be Phil Galfond than Dr Fro.

Only 1 out of about every 100 poker strategy articles do I read and consider worthy of posting here.  I ran across this article on the Interweb, and I thought it had some good advice. While it’s framed as advice to any tight/aggressive player, I think the advice is good for any player that basically knows what he is doing, but doesn’t find himself winning.

1) You think about your opponent’s range but never your own - No, I definitely think about my own. 

2) You misapply skills you’ve learned -

For the most part, this isn’t an issue, but from time to time it has been.  For instance, I remember reading that everytime the flop pairs, assume all bettors are weak and all callers are strong.  This is pretty good advice, but I would apply it in a vacuum.  For instance, once there was a player who always played every street of every hand straight up.  Always.  So when he bet into the paired flop, I should have put the general rule aside and folded.  I re-raised all in and lost to quads.

3) You call the same range in the cut-off as you do on the button -  Well, I definitely raise with a similiar range, but call?  No.  This is because I’ll call with just about any two cards on the button, not because I am particularly disciplined on the cut-off!!!

4) You overestimate your implied odds – Boy do I!  I always convince myself that regardless the pot odds, I will get implied odds.  Then I make my hand, bet it, and everyone folds!

5) You have leaks post-flop - Not really.  In fact, I think this is a strength

6) You look at each decision as a separate entity - Sometimes, yes.  Most of the time, no.  Certainly when I am playing my best, I look at the hand holistically.  But I can definitely look back at some hands/sessions when I didn’t play well (ofter due to exhaustion or distraction) where I can see that I was making discrete decisions.  Beautiful poker is when Junell smooth-calls the flop to steal on the turn, and when I play well, that is how I play.

7) You tilt too much - I don’t think this is an issue with me.  I don’t play worse just because I lost; in fact, it typically inspires me to play better.  I do have a problem with playing too long and being mentally exhausted and playing like crap, but not really a problem with tilting.

I am surprised he left off #8 – “You bet monsters too big”  I see a lot of this.  The reason to bet a made hand is to run off drawing hands (or make them overpay), but if your hand is so big that there is (almost) no risk of getting drawn out on, don’t run people off!  Convince them to “come over here and give Daddy a kiss.”

Curious what you think about these 7

Relate to the matter as I drop the bomb…

Some people go to a spa in Arizona for a week of de-tox. Nothing but living right and relaxing. While I am sure that has its merits, I agree with what Kyle said.

Vegas may be the exact opposite of a de-tox. It is basically a tox-booster, but the body and the brain need the tox-booster every bit as much as they need a de-tox…

Absolutely brilliant.

The plan was to play at the Venetian for a little bit, play their $150 tournament, then hit the Hard Rock for the Round of Each game. As often happens in Vegas, we never made it to step 2. We played $1-$2 at the Venetian from 10am to 1am then went home. I booked a $430 profit (winning $700 at one table in just a couple hours.)

It all gets pretty blurry after that.

It was a strange trip. It’s the second time that I was in Vegas during the Main Event, and I have to tell you that it makes a big difference. For one, the players were much much more international. Rarely did I play at a table that was even a majority of Americans. More than once, I was the only American at my table. I played with Swedes, Danes, Japanese, Canadians, Frenchies, Englishmen, Latvians, Russians, Spaniards, Israelis and Germans, to name a few. And they were young. At one point, I asked everbody at the table how old they were – I was the oldest guy at the table. Hell, one Dane at my table got ejected from the Venetian for playing underage!

So, yeah, the demographics were totally different than what I was used to. Only the table where I won $700 at the Venetian had the demographics I am used to. And my schtick worked against them very well (in one pot, I bet on the come and almost got Aces to fold. She called and I drew out on her for a $600 pot). But it didn’t work against the uber-aggressive Swedes, that’s for sure. I don’t mean to say I was out of my league as in these guys were particularly good (though some of them were.) They just played so differently, and by the time I thought I knew how to adjust, it was too late. So the rest of the trip went downhill, financially.

I wish you’d take off your sunglasses so I could stare at your eyes.
I put on my sunglasses so I could stare at your tits…

The first table I sat at had 2 strippers (one retired, one “active”). They spent an hour talking about “the business”. The elder stripper would have been terribly annoying had she not been so easy on the eyes. She was driniking champagne at the pace of about 1 per 20 minutes. She was buying $100 more in chips about once an hour.; She hadn’t slept in a couple days. There was a Swede sitting next to her that told us, when she went to the can, that the only reason he was still playing was to go home with her. She finally gave up around 3pm and he went up to her room. He came down a couple hours later to brag. Just think of how many guys pay this girl hundreds of dollars to see her boobs – then this Swede WINS hundreds of dollars off her and then has sex with her for free.

Omigod! You’re from St. Paul. We were playing with a guy earlier today who said he was from St. Paul.
That was me….and it was five minutes ago…

I sat a couple seats from Emmit Smith on the plane. What are the odds?

It’s a long way from $12 million to the $2-$5 game at the Venetian…

I almost played $2-$5 at the Venetian with Jamie Gold. He sat down at the table next me, and I asked to move, but he got moved to the $5-$10 game right before they called my name.

I played $1-$3 at the Wynn with Pat Humphreys. She is a pretty good poker player.

One night, Kyle and I played the $150 tournament at the Mirage. You get a $50 for every person you knock out. I knocked out nobody. In fact, although I played 2 hours, I only won one hand. Kyle made it to about 6th place but not in the money. That’s poker.

One hand at the Mirage, I made a huge bet at a board of KK772. I had 88. My opponent called with 22. Yes, he called to play the board for a split. Unfortunatly, I couldn’t find much other competition like him. We played at the Mirage until 10am that day. We took a break from the poker for 1-2 hours when I turned $100 into $1000 at the craps table. Then, just to prove that I am a magician, I turned $1000 into $300. Back at the poker table, we were drinking martinis all morning. That didn’t work out very well. That was the night that I really got clobbered. Oh well, that’s poker.

At one table we played with a guy that was a real know-it-all. I enjoyed jerking his chains a bit. At one point I claimed that the straddle is four times more likely to win a hand than any other position. He looked like Kyle after telling him that no Longhorns have ever been in trouble with the law. Know-it-all was ready to go home, so he bet his remaining chips ($52) on a flip of a coin. I won. That’s poker.

At one point we played at the Wynn, and nothing really happened. I think I lost about $100.

Does this stress me out? Are you fucking kidding? I once bet $1700 on the 49ers and didn’t even watch the game. I went to go see Titanic with Johnny the White Man. So, to answer your stupid fucking question, no I am not stressed out. I will sleep very well tonight…

We finished the trip with another trip to the Venetian. I played with a third stripper. At one point, she put a $500 rack of poker chips on her rack. She stood up without them falling, pointed to the racks and said, “Now that’s talent!” Most of the guys packed it up around midnight. I decided to play until 4am. The last 4 hours I played $2-$5 in a very tough game. I finally was having some fun at poker as these guys were good. I pulled a Junell at one point, smooth-calling a paired board to pop it on the turn (with nothing). I did a min-check-raise and got JJ to fold. By 4am, I turned $500 into $800 and got my last two cards of the night. I told myself I would play any two cards, so when I got 69s, I couldn’t fold. Flop comes 345 with two of my hearts. I end up going all-in for just more than the pot. I put my opponent on an overpair. If he did have one, I would be the favourite with 15 outs, twice. He insta-called and showed 67 for the straight. OK, now I have 9 outs twice to the flush plus 3 outs to split the pot. That makes him a 3:2 favorite, and he is feeling pretty good (in fact, he is telling me that I’m an idiot for betting like I did into a made hand).

But what nobody told this guy is that he is in my movie. I am the fucking star of the movie, and he is, at best, an extra. People like movies with happy endings, and my movie is going to have the happiest fucking ending of all time. Anyway, it’s the last hand of the night, and I ALWAYS win the last hand of the night. There’s $1800 in that pot, and it’s all going to be Daddy’s in about 30 fucking seconds, so deal those cards, Bitch…

Blank. Blank. No hearts, no chips. Plane leaves in 4 hours. Time to bounce.