When I was in college and for my first year out of college, I used to bet a lot on sports. I used to lose a lot betting on sports. One day the light bulb went off over my head, and I decided that I was too smart to be throwing away money like that. Most people would have quit. Not me, not this gambler. I knew (see earlier post) that it is very much possible to have a positive EV in sports gambling. I just didn’t know how. Yet.
The first thing I did was to consult my very large Excel spreadsheets that tracked every penny one and lost and won over the years. (Hey, I’m an accountant, what did you expect?). I noticed some patterns. I noticed that I consistently won on Saturdays, lost on Sundays and got killed on MNF. I got clobbered in all sports other than football. In all cases, I typically did well on my “games of the week” top picks, but poorly on the other picks. I did better on SWC and Big XII football than on Pac-10. I did better on AFC teams than on NFC teams. What could be gleaned from all of this?
First, I figured out that I did better on games where I knew the teams better. As I watch 10x the college football then pro football, it shouldn’t be surprising that I did better on Saturdays. Furthermore, the Big XII teams that had played UT (a game that I likely saw in person) were more familiar to me. Thus, I could predict better than the field how they would fare in their next game.
The pattern over the course of the weekend was clear to: I won on Saturday and got a little & cash rich. I bet like an fool on payday on Sunday morn and got in a hole. I started pressing late Sunday and dug a bigger hole. I would double-up-to-catch-up on MNF and lose.
So I took the above observations and developed a list of 9 commandments to follow. I followed the religiously for the next 4 years and won an average of $2k per year. I eventually quit because I found myself with very little time for research (a wedding on the way, marathon training, a pending move overseas). But here are the commandments I followed:
1. Focus your attention where you are good. Only bet on college football. Avoid other sports. Avoid pro sports. Do most of your betting on the teams you watch the most.
2. When you get up, bag a winner. That doesn’t mean you have to quit betting, but it certainly means that you don’t take unnecessary risks for larger sums just because you are up.
3. Don’t press it when you are down. Just cut your losses and wait for the next weekend. MNF is a coin-toss, so why put $500 on it? Put $100 on each of 5 games next Saturday and you will do better in the long run.
4. Don’t bet larger than your bankroll allows. If you have $2,000 to play with, then you really shouldn’t bet > $100 per game. You should probably bet $50. Betting too much can put all of your eggs in one basket, which is an unnecessary risk. Gambling is a marathon, not a sprint.
5. Avoid the fool’s bets. Parlays and teasers are primarily for fools and degenerates. There are a few exceptions. For instance, parlying a favorite with the associated over or parlaying the dog with the associated under can at times be a smart play. This is based on the fact there is greater than 25% probability for each of these 2 scenarios out of the 4 possible scenarios. This is due to correlation. Furthermore, teasers can be valuable on betting O/U’s on very low totals. This is because the amount of points given on a tease is fixed regardless of the underlying O/U. Thus, the 6pts represent a greater percentage of the O/U on low O/U’s. In the extreme case, if an O/U was set at 6 (ridiculous, but I am trying to make a point), then you could tease it to 0, and have a sure thing. Conversely, if the O/U is 90, it is unlikely that 6 points will make much of a difference.
6. Play on your own terms. If you did your research and decided that Notre Dame-3 is a good bet, and then call your bookie and he gives you ND-5, walk away.
7. Only play your top 3 –5 games each week. Picks # 6 – 100 are less likely to come through and you are probably just going to pay a lot of unnecessary juice. Gambling is interesting like that. Imagine if the Yankees could choose which 3 teams they would play each year. Why would they play the Sox? They would play Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Montreal and go undefeated, assuring themselves a spot in the playoffs. You have the opportunity in gambling. You don’t have to be on the most difficult games.
8. Avoid the bright lights. Although it is more fun to bet on marquee games, in all likelihood, the lines are properly set. The real opportunities to win are on games between a couple teams nobody cares about – say, Baylor v Kansas.
9. Trust the experts and don’t be afraid to pay for advice. Shannon and I started paying for advice from Lance Zierlein, who, IMHO, knows more about sports handicapping than anyone I will ever come in contact with.
So what in the hell does this have to do with poker? It was only about 1.5 years later that I increased my interest in poker. I was losing, and I wanted to win. I knew I could. At the time, I didn’t consciously apply my 9 commandments. However, the changed way of the thinking that those 9 commandments had on me guided my efforts in poker. I just dug up my old 9 commandments today (in honor of the USC-Va Tech game) and I realize that they can absolutely be applied to poker.
1. Focus your attention where you are good. I am better at Holdem than Omaha. Why play Omaha. As I got better at PL, I focused on it, and now that NL is my expertise, that is where I spend my time.
2. When you get up, bag a winner. That doesn’t mean you have to quit playing, but it certainly means that you don’t take unnecessary risks for larger sums just because you are up. This can be applied over the course of a single night (don’t’ play like a fool just because you are up) and on a more macro level (don’t step up to a bigger game just because you are running hot.)
3. Don’t press it when you are down. This is called going on tilt in poker and it often happens without clearly realizing it at the time, but it can be seen with perfect clarity in hindsight. Unless you are absolutely convinced that you are the best guy at the table. Just get up if you are getting hammered. There will be plenty of games in the future, but if your bankroll has vanished, it won’t matter.
4. Don’t bet larger than your bankroll allows. I have nothing more to add here. If you bet more than you can afford, you will find yourself pressing when losing, and then you have to apply rule # 3.
5. Avoid the fool’s bets. This is the commandment that translates over to poker the least. However, I can think of some examples: a) insurance that doesn’t pay fair odds b) playing in a jackpot game with too high juice c) and many more decision in dealer’s choice stupid games
6. Play on your own terms. If you don’t like the juice, the players, the rules, the limits, the anything – don’t play just to play. Just say no.
7. Only play your top 3 –5 games each week. Why play in a game of good players for small stakes when you could play bad players for higher stakes. Choose your games wisely.
8. Avoid the bright lights. You may have a blast playing in the high limits game in Bellagio, but you can win more at Cousin Eddy’s Thursday night game. Don’t be lured in by the bright lights, or you may find your self meeting the same fate of that proverbial deer in headlights.
9. Trust the experts and don’t be afraid to pay for advice. Read books, read online. Take advice from guys who win, not from unproven players. Buy Super System. Buy the Book of Tells.
