Watched the 21 movie tonight. I guess the Vegas scenes were cool, but overall I thought the movie bombed and didn’t even portray the counting schemes even close to correctly. Tyra suggested that I was taking it too literally…..

Watched Semi-Pro the other night — AWESOME!

To: Vlad
cc: ARH
From: Dr Fro
Subject: Re: 21

Very few people in gambling circles, very few people who read the book and very few people associated with the actual MIT students thought the movie came any where close to reality. A handful of criticisms:

- the protagonist in real life was Asian. So were almost all of the other counters. They were Anglicized for the movie.
- the card counting schemes are too simplified. You don’t just get to a count and bump your bet. That is part of it. The harder part is that the strategy tables change as the count changes. You make different hit/stay/double decisions.
- the story about med school was manufactured for the movie.
- the story arc involving him losing his discipline and all that money was largely manufactured to Hollywood up the movie.
- the riddle told in the classroom (an all time favorite of mine) was not told correctly. The omission of a key fact (that the game show host knows which is the winning door and will never open this door) fundamentally changes the riddle, the answer to the riddle and the lesson to be learned from the riddle. Then they chalk it up to some highbrow sounding theory, when it is actually simple math.

DF

Fro,

An interesting hand at a tournament the other night:

Early in the Tournament, everyone has roughly $3,000 in chips. Blinds are $10-$20. I don’t know anyone at the tournament and how they play. I am under the gun, raise to $60 with AK offsuit. I agree with that. Get 5 callers.

The flop comes 10-3-3 rainbow. For the most part, that is a terrible flop for you with 5 callers. I bet out $200 to see where I stand. I agree with that. For starters, whenever a pair flops and all cards are smallish, it is quite possible that everyone mised the flop entirely. You might win the pot right there. If not, as you said, at least you know where you stand. Middle position player raises to $500. Late Position player calls, I call. You can call or fold. I would fold. You just found out where you stand (in a big pile of sh_t) You can only win by hitting runner-runner or perhaps by hitting one of the 6 outs that would beat a ten. In all situations that you could win (and there aren’t many), your opponent (the raiser) likely has re-draws. To make matters worse, the other guy calling along could be hiding in the weeds with a monster. Three players to the turn.

J comes on the turn. I check, middle position bets $500, late position calls, I call. It isn’t a terrible call. You’ve come this far. The worst set of decisions would be to call the flop just to fold the turn. While I would have folded the flop, you are committed to stick around for what could be a great suckout or a great call.

A comes on the river. I bet $500 Since you fear a raise, it is better to check and call than to bet. If he can’t beat your two pair, he can’t call, so there is no value in betting. There is, however, downside, middle position player calls, late position player raises to $1500. I reluctantly call, leaving me with roughly $400. Again, you came this far, so you need to stick with your plan. But, this is precisely why I would have folded the flop. Middle position player calls.

How would you have played this hand, and what to you think the other players had? See above

I will e-mail you later with their holdings, and where I think I went wrong. I look fwd to it.

D. DF